United States
The United States possesses an estimated 7,700 intact warheads. This includes approximately 4,650 warheads in the Pentagon’s stockpile: 2,150 of these weapons are considered deployed on missiles or bases with operational launchers; the other 2,500 are spares centrally stored in reserve. We estimate that the Energy Department stores approximately 3,000 intact but retired warheads that are slated for dismantlement by 2022 at the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas.
Of the more than 66,500 warheads that the United States has produced since 1945, almost 59,000 have been disassembled, more than 13,000 of these since 1990. The United States has retained nearly 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) from the warheads it dismantled, storing them in igloos at the Pantex Plant in Texas. The United States also stores some 5,000 canned subassemblies (secondaries from thermonuclear warheads) at the Y-12 facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
The United States is modifying existing warheads under so-called life extension programs, and plans production of so-called interoperable warhead designs that are not in the current stockpile.1
Russia
Russia has released very little information about the size of its stockpile, but based on statements from Russian officials and US assessments, we estimate that Russia currently has approximately 8,500 intact warheads. Of these, about 4,480 are in the military stockpile, with the remaining 4,000 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement. We estimate that since 1949, the Soviet Union and Russia have produced some 55,000 nuclear warheads.
Russia is in the middle of a major transformation of its nuclear posture involving the phasing out of Soviet-era missiles and submarines and the deployment of newer, but fewer, weapons to replace them. To keep some degree of parity with the larger US missile force, Russia is deploying more warheads on each of its missiles.2
Britain
The current nuclear stockpile in Britain consists of about 225 warheads for delivery by Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) aboard Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. According to the British government, “fewer than 160” of the warheads are operationally available, and one submarine with “up to 48 warheads” is on patrol at any given time. A decision about building a replacement class of nuclear submarine is expected in the near future.
By the mid-2020s, Britain plans to reduce its stockpile to approximately 180 warheads, of which 120 will be operationally available, and 40 deployed.
New information demonstrates that the British arsenal peaked in the 1970s at approximately 500 warheads, significantly higher than previously estimated. This new information leads us to estimate that Britain has produced approximately 1,250 warheads since 1953.3
France
There are approximately 300 warheads in France’s nuclear stockpile, down from some 540 in 1992. In March 2008, President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that the French arsenal would be reduced to slightly fewer than 300 warheads. We estimate that France has produced more than 1,260 nuclear warheads since 1964.
France has completed deployment of the ASMP-A (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée-A) cruise missile on Mirage 2000N and Rafale fighter-bombers and has begun deployment of the M51 SLBM with a modified warhead on Triumphant-class submarines.
China
We estimate that China has an arsenal of roughly 250 nuclear warheads and that it has produced approximately 610 nuclear warheads since becoming a nuclear power in 1964. China’s warheads arm several new mobile solid-fueled missiles that are being introduced to replace old liquid-fueled ballistic missiles that are being phased out. We also estimate that China has a small inventory of air-delivered nuclear bombs. Production is probably under way of new warheads for missiles intended to arm the new Jin-class submarine. Chinese warheads are believed to be stored in central storage facilities and not mated with launchers.4
The US intelligence community predicts that China will increase its total number of warheads on long-range ballistic missiles from about 50 to well in excess of 100 in the next 15 years, although this prediction has been sliding since 2001.
India and Pakistan
Neither India nor Pakistan has released official information regarding the size of its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is estimated to have produced 100 to 120 warheads and fissile material for more. India is estimated to have produced 90 to 110 warheads and is planning to increase its fissile material production capacity. The Indian and Pakistani warheads are not thought to be operationally deployed but in central storage. The two countries are in an arms race to deploy new weapon types and are believed to be increasing their stockpiles.5
Israel
In keeping with its policy of nuclear opacity, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied possession of nuclear weapons; however, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded in 1999 that Israel had produced approximately 80 warheads. The DIA projected that Israel’s nuclear stockpile would only modestly increase by 2020 (Federation of American Scientists, 2007).6 There are rumors that Israel is equipping some of its submarines with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. Israel is estimated to have produced fissile material sufficient for 115 to 190 warheads.
North Korea
Despite three nuclear tests and production of enough plutonium for 8 to 12 nuclear bombs, North Korea has yet to demonstrate that it has operationalized any weapons. It is the conclusion of the US intelligence community that despite its efforts, “North Korea has not, however, fully developed, tested, or demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear-armed missile” (Clapper, 2013: 7).
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